Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Recent cooling after an intense early-July heatwave has anchored trader sentiment around a 72–75°F high for New York City on July 7, yet the market currently assigns only a 4% probability to the highest temperature exceeding this range. This sharp divergence reflects a rapid shift in the last 48 hours, where temperatures at LaGuardia dropped from a record-breaking 104°F on 2 July to a max of 77°F on 6 July[1][6]. The crowd-implied 4% YES probability suggests traders are betting heavily on continued moderation rather than a return to the extreme peaks seen earlier in the week.

Historically, July in New York City sees average highs of 85°F with lows of 72°F, making a sub-72°F peak unusual but not unprecedented during post-heatwave lulls[2]. The current frontrunner outcome of 68–69°F at 39% aligns with recent cooling trends, while the next closest outcome of 66–67°F sits at 21%, indicating a market view that temperatures will remain well below the seasonal average[1]. This framing suggests the 4% probability is a rational response to the immediate meteorological reality rather than an outlier bet.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecast updates for LaGuardia, as any sudden shift in wind patterns or cloud cover could alter the day’s maximum temperature before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 7 July[2]. Recent news from FOX Weather highlights that LaGuardia recorded its warmest midnight temperature on record at 94°F on 4 July, a stark contrast to the current cooling trend that may persist through the settlement date[3][5]. No major weather announcements are scheduled for today, but the dependency on real-time data from Wunderground remains critical for final resolution[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.