Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The East Coast heatwave has intensified over the last 48 hours, pushing LaGuardia Airport to record its highest-ever midnight temperature of 94°F (34.4°C) on July 4, 2026, while dew points remained above 70°F to sustain elevated heat indices throughout the night[2][3]. This unprecedented thermal persistence, with overnight lows staying near 84°F and breaking the 2002 record, suggests the atmosphere is retaining significant heat energy that could drive daytime highs well above the typical July average of 85°F[2][6]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome appears disconnected from this real-world surge, as the station has already established a new record high minimum temperature of 84°F, surpassing the previous 78°F benchmark[2].

Historical parallels from the 2013 heatwave, when LaGuardia hit 93°F at midnight, indicate that such extreme nocturnal warmth often precedes scorching daytime peaks, yet the 2026 event has already exceeded that threshold by one degree[3]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service heat alerts, which currently cover 105 million people across 21 states, as the peak of this heat is still forecast to reach the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast[6]. Additionally, operational constraints at LaGuardia due to the compounding high heat may affect flight schedules, a dependency highlighted by Delta Air Lines' recent travel advisories for the airport[9]. The resolution source, Wunderground, will capture the highest temperature recorded for all times on July 6, meaning traders must watch for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could alter the daily maximum[2]. With the settlement window ending on July 6, 2026, at 12:00 UTC, the focus remains on whether the daytime high will breach the 100°F threshold that has been recorded six times in July forecasts for this location[1][5]. The market's zero probability fails to account for the fact that the station has already recorded a daily high of 102°F earlier in the week, breaking a daily high-temperature record[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.