Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The heat wave gripping New York has intensified over the last 48 hours, with LaGuardia Airport recording its warmest midnight temperature on record at 94°F early Friday, shattering previous benchmarks and signalling a volatile thermal environment for the upcoming July 4 settlement window[2][5]. This unprecedented overnight warmth, combined with daytime highs already surging past 100°F in recent days, has fundamentally altered the probability landscape, pushing the crowd-implied chance of a 98–99°F peak to near zero as traders anticipate temperatures likely exceeding that bracket[2][6].

Historical precedents frame this current anomaly sharply; LaGuardia previously hit 104°F in 2026, surpassing its 1966 record of 101°F, while Newark and Philadelphia also recorded record-breaking peaks of 105°F and 103°F respectively during the same heat event[3][6]. These comparable cases suggest that a 98–99°F cap is statistically improbable given the established trajectory of extreme heat, where daily highs in July 2026 are forecast to range between 81°F and 99°F, with averages already pushing toward 86°F[1].

Traders must monitor the live National Weather Service forecast revisions and the scheduled storm development expected later in the day, which could abruptly cool temperatures or intensify the heat wave depending on wind patterns and precipitation timing[4][8]. The heat wave is forecast to ease only by Sunday, meaning the critical settlement window on July 4 remains exposed to peak thermal conditions, with ABC7 New York noting a chance for showers developing later in the day that could serve as the primary cooling catalyst[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.