Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The immediate move is that the market is now inside the resolution window, and the latest public temperature guidance points to a warm, but not exceptional, late-July setup for New York. AccuWeather’s monthly view for NYC shows highs around the upper 80s F on 30 July, with 88°F listed for the day and 87°F the day before, which is consistent with a hot summer afternoon rather than an extreme spike.[1]

That matters because the target is the single highest reading at LaGuardia Airport, not the citywide average or the Central Park official climate record. New York’s July extremes are typically far below the upper 90s and 100s except during notable heat waves; Central Park’s all-time high is 106°F, and even recent standout July days have tended to cluster around the low-to-mid 90s unless a major heat dome is in place.[6][14] Historical July 30 reference points also show that record-setting heat on this date is possible, with 98°F recorded on 30 July 1940 in New York City weather history.[3]

For traders, the key catalysts are the afternoon temperature profile at LaGuardia and any changes in the regional heat forecast, cloud cover, or sea-breeze influence, all of which can cap the day’s high. A late-day surge is more relevant here than the morning reading because the market settles on the highest temperature observed during the full day at KLGA under the market’s source methodology.[4] Unless the forecast shifts materially hotter before the afternoon peak, the current 0% YES implies the crowd is pricing the outcome as highly unlikely relative to the usual late-July range.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.