Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

A record-shattering heatwave has gripped New York City over the last 48 hours, with LaGuardia Airport hitting 94°F at midnight on 3 July 2026—the city’s warmest midnight ever recorded[2][3]. Daytime peaks have surged even higher, reaching 100°F by late afternoon on the same day, according to National Weather Service data[4]. This extreme spike has rendered the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any temperature range below 95°F on 3 July entirely misaligned with observed reality.

Historically, 3 July in NYC has seen highs between 81°F and 99°F, with an average of 86°F[1]. However, this year’s event has already eclipsed the old record of 101°F (set in 2016), with LaGuardia hitting 104°F[5]. Such anomalies are rare but not unprecedented during intense heatwaves, and they strongly suggest that the market’s 0% probability is a pricing error rather than a rational forecast.

Traders should monitor official Wunderground confirmations for the day’s maximum temperature, as the market resolves solely on that figure[7]. Additionally, watch for updates from the National Weather Service and local news outlets covering the heatwave’s duration and intensity, as these will determine whether temperatures remain elevated through settlement[8]. No new announcements are expected, but real-time data feeds will be the decisive catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.