Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's weather on 24 July 2026 will be determined by atmospheric conditions roughly eighteen months forward, making precise forecasting impossible at this distance. The settlement mechanism relies on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station throughout that calendar day, measured in Fahrenheit and resolved via Weather Underground's historical database. Current crowd pricing at 0% suggests traders are either uncertain which temperature bracket to select or treating this as a placeholder market pending clearer resolution criteria.

July temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 77°F and 88°F, with historical extremes reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The airport's location near water moderates peak temperatures compared to inland Manhattan, where readings occasionally exceed 95°F. Comparable July days over the past two decades show most highs clustering in the 82–86°F band, though the 2019 heat wave pushed readings to 92°F on multiple dates. These patterns provide the baseline against which any specific outcome should be evaluated.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate forecasts released by NOAA in spring 2026, which typically offer directional guidance on whether a given summer will trend warmer or cooler than normal. Atlantic hurricane activity and jet stream positioning in late July will determine whether tropical moisture or continental air masses dominate the Northeast. No near-term catalysts affect this market's resolution; the outcome depends entirely on meteorological conditions materialising in summer 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.