Highest temperature in NYC on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature in New York eased after the mid-July heat burst, with latest guidance pointing to a more moderate July 22 pattern rather than a repeat of the recent extremes. Model and forecast commentary for the day clustered the city’s afternoon high in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with partial cloud cover and a possible seabreeze helping to limit the upside at LaGuardia Airport.[2][3]

That matters because the market is resolved against the single highest reading at LaGuardia, not a citywide average, so brief late-afternoon warming or a delayed sea breeze can still shift the final bin by a few degrees. July climatology in New York is centred around an 83°F average high, and current outlooks for the month have generally sat near 80–85°F, which keeps the 80s bins more plausible than either a cool 70s outcome or a 90°F-plus spike.[2][3]

For traders, the main watch-items are the timing of any afternoon convection, cloud build-up, and whether the onshore flow arrives early enough to cap the peak. The latest available airport observation late on July 22 showed muggy, breezy conditions at nearby Newark, underscoring how quickly boundary-layer moisture can change the day’s maximum temperature, while updated NWS and ensemble runs remain the key inputs before the market settles.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 22? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.