Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the extreme heat wave currently gripping New York, with LaGuardia Airport already recording 94°F at midday and a 24-hour peak of 102°F by 3 PM. In the last 24 hours, the forecast has shifted from a typical July high of 87°F to a dangerous range exceeding 99°F, prompting municipalities to open cooling centres and over 160 million people to face severe heat advisories. This sudden escalation explains why the crowd-implied probability for lower temperature ranges has collapsed to 0%, as the atmosphere is now primed for record-breaking highs rather than seasonal averages.

Historical precedents frame how to interpret this current 0% probability for lower ranges, as LaGuardia previously reached 101°F on July 2 in 1966, while Newark Airport hit 103°F in 1901. Current market data shows the frontrunner is now 98–99°F at 27%, closely followed by 100–101°F at 22%, suggesting traders are pricing in a repeat of these extreme 1960s and early 20th-century peaks. The average July high of 87°F is now irrelevant, and the market is effectively betting on whether today’s 102°F peak will be sustained or pushed higher before the settlement window closes at noon tomorrow.

Traders must watch the National Weather Service climatological reports and real-time updates from Wunderground, which will confirm the final daily maximum for LaGuardia. A key catalyst is the approaching Fourth of July weekend, which could intensify the heat wave as over 160 million individuals remain under severe advisories, potentially pushing temperatures beyond the 101°F record. Recent news from Yahoo highlights that dangerous, record-breaking heat is possible in New York and New Jersey, meaning the final resolution could hinge on whether afternoon temperatures continue to rise past the current 102°F peak before the 12:00 UTC deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.