Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

NYC’s LaGuardia Airport is currently sitting at 79°F under overcast skies, a stark drop from the record-shattering 94°F midnight heat that gripped the East Coast just days ago during the July 2026 heatwave [2][3]. The market’s 0% implied probability for any outcome above the current reading reflects this rapid cooling, yet historical averages for July 17 suggest a typical high of 89.2°F, creating a disconnect between the immediate weather and seasonal norms [4].

Traders should weigh the recent record-breaking heat against the current cloud cover and light northwest winds, which suppress daytime heating significantly [2]. The July 4 heatwave previously broke records standing for over a century across a 500-mile corridor, suggesting that extreme outliers are possible even in late July, though today’s conditions favour a milder outcome [5]. The frontrunner outcome of 86–87°F holds 52% probability, indicating the crowd expects a rebound toward the seasonal average despite the current dip [1].

Watch for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind direction, as LaGuardia’s temperature is highly sensitive to these local factors. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s daily high for KLGA, meaning even a brief spike above 85°F could alter the resolution [1]. With the heatwave’s peak already passed and current humidity at 50%, the catalyst for a higher temperature would require a rapid clearing of skies and a shift to warmer southerly flows, neither of which is forecast in the immediate 7-day outlook [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.