Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

An intense heatwave gripping the Northeast has pushed New York City toward its hottest days of the summer, with LaGuardia Airport recording oppressive conditions as a persistent high-pressure system traps heat and humidity. Current readings show temperatures hovering near 92°F with dew points climbing above 71°F, creating a heat index that feels significantly hotter than the raw air temperature [2]. The market’s 0% implied probability for the lowest temperature ranges appears to ignore this active weather event, which forecasts predict will see NYC hit 95°F today and 97°F tomorrow, marking the peak of this summer’s heat so far [5].

Historical data from July 2026 suggests daily highs typically range between 81°F and 98°F, with the average high sitting at 85°F [3]. The market’s frontrunner outcome is 98–99°F at 41%, followed by 96–97°F at 20%, indicating traders expect the day to breach the upper end of the seasonal norm [1]. This aligns with recent records, such as LaGuardia’s 94°F midnight reading earlier this month, which broke the 2013 record and signals a trend of increasingly extreme overnight and daytime temperatures [6].

Traders should monitor the weakening of the high-pressure system expected after July 16, when a cold front from the west may introduce clouds and cooler air by July 17 [5]. The resolution depends entirely on the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on July 15, sourced from Wunderground, so any sudden shift in wind direction or cloud cover before the settlement window closes could alter the outcome [1]. With the heatwave forecast to deliver the hottest weather of the season today, the current 0% probability for lower ranges seems misaligned with the active meteorological reality.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.