Highest temperature in NYC on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

NYC is currently locked in a record-breaking July 2026 heatwave that has already shattered long-standing East Coast temperature records, with LaGuardia Airport hitting 94°F at midnight on July 4. This extreme thermal baseline explains the market’s 0% probability for lower ranges, as the atmosphere retains unprecedented heat overnight. Historical precedent from this specific week shows daily highs routinely climbing between 82°F and 98°F, with the average July high sitting at 85°F, yet the current anomaly has pushed actual readings far above these norms [2][4].

The market’s frontrunner outcome of 96–97°F at 54% probability reflects traders betting the heatwave will peak today before the settlement window closes at noon UTC. The next closest outcome, 94–95°F, holds 32% of the implied probability, suggesting a tight contest between a slight dip or a further surge [1]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly timeseries for KLGA and any late-morning updates from Wunderground, which serves as the official resolution source for the highest daily temperature [5].

With the heatwave already breaking records that stood for over a century across a 500-mile corridor, the primary catalyst is whether today’s maximum exceeds the 94°F midnight record set earlier this month [3][4]. No new announcements are expected, but the dependency remains on real-time sensor data from LaGuardia before the 12:00 UTC cutoff. The current 0% probability for lower ranges is a direct function of this established thermal floor, making the 96–97°F range the logical consensus for the day’s peak [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.