Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

A record-shattering heatwave has gripped the Northeast, with LaGuardia Airport hitting 104°F on 3 July, smashing the 1966 record by three degrees and setting a new modern-era benchmark for the station[1]. This unprecedented thermal event, which killed 29 people in neighbouring New Jersey, has fundamentally altered the baseline for July temperatures in the region, pushing readings far outside historical norms[1]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific range likely reflects traders assuming the extreme peak has already passed, yet the lingering heat suggests the atmosphere remains primed for another surge before the settlement window closes.

Historically, LaGuardia’s July highs rarely exceed 96°F, with the average sitting at 87°F, making any temperature above 100°F an outlier even in a hot year[3]. However, the 2026 heatwave has already produced three consecutive days of record-breaking heat, including a 102°F reading on 4 July and a historic 94°F midnight temperature that shattered the 2013 record[4][5]. Traders must weigh whether the current 0% probability ignores the possibility of a secondary peak, given that Newark Airport recently recorded 105°F, the second-warmest temperature ever at that station[8].

The primary catalyst to watch is the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for KLGA, which will confirm if the current mostly cloudy conditions suppress further heating or if a late afternoon spike occurs[9]. With the settlement deadline fixed at 12:00 UTC on 10 July, traders should monitor the forecast for any shift in wind direction from the southwest, which could transport additional heat from the interior[9]. The persistence of this heat dome, described by NOAA as unprecedented for the corridor, means the risk of a second record day remains non-zero despite the crowd’s dismissal[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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