Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the first major heat wave of 2026, which has pushed New York City temperatures into the mid-90s, with Thursday potentially marking the peak of this scorching stretch. In the last 24 hours, Governor Hochul issued a preparedness warning for the week, confirming that temperatures could surge higher than initially forecast, a shift that directly impacts the likelihood of extreme highs on 1 July. This sudden intensification of the heat event explains why the crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature range sits at 0% YES, as traders are recalibrating expectations based on the immediate surge in thermal data rather than historical averages.

Historical context frames how to interpret this current probability: LaGuardia Airport’s record high is 107°F, recorded on 3 July 1966, while the average high for July is 88°F with a typical range of 82°F to 99°F. The 1 June 2026 market resolved to 68–69°F, a stark contrast to the current heat wave, highlighting how seasonal variability can swing dramatically within weeks. The recent surge in the overnight low market for 1 July, which jumped 17.5% in one hour to lead at 53.5% for the 74–75°F bracket, suggests traders are betting on sustained warmth rather than a cool snap, reinforcing the plausibility of high temperatures exceeding typical ranges.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which will provide the official maximum temperature recorded at 12:45 PM local time on 1 July. The primary catalyst is the continuation of the current heat wave, with Thursday expected to be the hottest day, potentially reaching mid-90s or higher. A recent report from ABC7NY confirms that Hochul’s preparedness announcement is tied to this specific week’s forecast, making the schedule of heat advisories and emergency declarations a critical dependency. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, so any late-afternoon temperature spikes recorded before this cutoff will determine the final resolution.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.