Highest temperature in NYC on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The heat built through the last 24 hours, with Central Park still near 79°F on the evening update and LaGuardia at 89.1°F in the latest available report before the close, so the key question is not whether New York was warm, but where the day’s top reading finally landed in the airport observations table.[5][2] AccuWeather’s daily page shows an actual high of 89°F for 8 August in New York, while the market’s resolution source is the Weather Underground Daily Observations table at LaGuardia, which can differ from summary displays and can still be revised until the next day’s first datapoint appears.[1][3]

The crowd-implied 0% for the relevant YES bin is consistent with a market that has already priced in an upper-80s or low-90s outcome rather than an extreme spike. Comparable August setups in New York often top out in the high 80s to low 90s unless a stronger heat ridge or delayed storm line pushes the airport station higher, and the climatological normal for Central Park in early August is 84°F, well below the day’s observed values.[4][11] Weather reporting from August 2026 has also shown a broader hot spell across the region, including multiple 90s readings in New York City during the month, which helps explain why traders have treated a high-80s outcome as the base case rather than an outlier.[7][15]

For the final print, traders should watch the Weather Underground LaGuardia hourly and daily observation tables, not the headline “Day High & Low” summary, because late updates can alter the settlement bin if they arrive before the following date’s first datapoint is posted.[3] The main catalyst is whether any late-afternoon convective outflow or sea-breeze shift nudges the airport station above the last reported 89.1°F; if not, the market is likely to settle in the high-80s band already reflected in surrounding forecasts and station reports.[2][1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.