Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York’s temperature outlook has shifted sharply in the past 24–48 hours because the city has already been through a July heat burst, including a 100°F reading in Central Park and 104°F at LaGuardia Airport during the early-July heat wave. That matters for this market because it shows the metro area can still reach the upper 90s or beyond when hot air and humidity align, even if the broader summer pattern is not persistently extreme.[6][17]

For context, LaGuardia’s daily highs in recent hot spells have been strong enough to push outcomes into the mid-80s, low-90s and, in exceptional cases, above 100°F, but those are usually tied to organised heat events rather than an ordinary August day. The current 0% YES price for the market’s leading summer-bracket outcomes implies traders are not seeing a strong signal for a rare extreme, and the most plausible frame is a high-temperature distribution clustered around the low-to-mid 80s unless a fresh heat ridge builds overhead.[3][4][17]

The main catalysts to watch are the short-range National Weather Service forecast cycle, any heat advisories or excessive-heat watches, and whether afternoon sunshine, weak sea breeze, or storm outflow modifies the airport’s peak reading. Because the market resolves on the highest LaGuardia Airport temperature recorded on the day, the key number is the midday-to-afternoon maximum rather than the overnight low, and even a small forecast change of a few degrees can move the relevant bucket quickly.[3][9][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.