Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's weather on 13 August 2026 will depend heavily on whether a summer high-pressure system persists over the Northeast or if Atlantic moisture and frontal systems move inland during that period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in cooler conditions or uncertainty about which temperature bracket will ultimately resolve. August typically brings New York's most consistent heat, with LaGuardia Airport recording average highs near 27°C (81°F), though readings regularly exceed 30°C (86°F) during sustained heat waves.

Historical August patterns at LaGuardia show that temperatures above 32°C (90°F) occur in roughly 40–50% of years, whilst readings exceeding 35°C (95°F) happen in approximately 15–20% of years. The 2019 heat wave pushed temperatures to 37°C (99°F) in early August, whilst cooler Augusts have seen highs remain in the low to mid-20s Celsius. The resolution methodology—using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—matters operationally, as instantaneous readings can occasionally differ from rounded daily highs reported elsewhere.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecasts from mid-July onwards, as these typically gain reliability within the two-week window. Atlantic hurricane season activity and any tropical systems tracking northward would be the primary catalyst for anomalous cooling, whilst persistent ridging from the western Atlantic would favour above-normal temperatures. Long-range climate patterns through July 2026 will provide early signals about whether August conditions align with typical seasonal norms or deviate significantly.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.