Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York's weather pattern for mid-August 2026 remains unsettled, with the National Weather Service tracking a potential low-pressure system that could influence temperatures across the Northeast during the second week of the month. Current atmospheric modelling suggests variable conditions, though the precise track and timing of any system remain uncertain at this extended forecast horizon. The 0% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty in pinpointing exact temperature ranges more than eighteen months in advance, where seasonal normals and model uncertainty dominate trading signals.

August temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with historical data from the past two decades showing 11 August highs clustering between 78°F and 87°F. Extreme heat events—readings above 90°F—occur occasionally but remain statistically uncommon for this specific date, occurring roughly once every five to seven years. The current crowd assessment suggests traders are pricing in a baseline expectation aligned with these seasonal patterns rather than anticipating an anomalous heat spike.

Traders monitoring this market should track National Weather Service extended forecasts beginning in late July 2026, when deterministic skill improves significantly. Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-level ridge positioning in early August will prove critical; a strong Bermuda high could drive temperatures substantially higher, whilst a trough passage would suppress them. Real-time observations from 10 August onwards will provide the most actionable signals, as short-range forecasts converge on actual conditions within 48 hours of settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.