Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 10 August 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport, with the market currently pricing a 3% chance of exceeding the upper threshold in this range. The settlement hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally matters when afternoon thunderstorms produce sharp temperature swings or when recording equipment captures brief spikes missed in hourly averages.

August heat in New York typically peaks in the first half of the month as summer's warmth reaches its zenith before Atlantic moisture patterns shift. Historical data from LaGuardia shows that extreme single-day temperatures—those pushing into the 95–100°F range—occur roughly once every 3–5 years during August, though the specific date of 10 August carries no particular meteorological significance. The current 3% implied probability reflects baseline expectations for an ordinary mid-summer day rather than conditions that would require a heat dome or unusual atmospheric setup.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast for the New York region as mid-August approaches, particularly any alerts regarding heat advisories or unusual high-pressure systems in the 7–10 day window preceding settlement. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf Stream positioning will influence whether moisture suppresses peak temperatures or whether dry continental air allows readings to climb. The market's low probability suggests the crowd expects typical August conditions at LaGuardia, where daily highs commonly range between 82–88°F.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.