Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s July 12, 2026 high temperature is effectively locked in as the day has already passed, with the Munich Airport Station recording a peak of 28.4°C by 4 PM UTC today. The crowd-implied 0% YES probability reflects this certainty: the market cannot resolve to any range excluding the observed value, and no further temperature change is possible after sunset.

Historical July data for Munich Airport shows daytime maxima typically cluster between 23°C and 29°C, with long-term averages near 24°C and extreme outliers rarely exceeding 35°C. The 28.4°C reading aligns with the upper end of normal variability but falls well below Germany’s national heat record of 41.7°C set in 2022, suggesting no anomalous heatwave context for this date.

With settlement occurring automatically once Wunderground publishes the official daily maximum, traders should monitor the live update on the station’s history page for confirmation. No external catalysts—such as weather service announcements or schedule changes—apply, as the event is complete and the resolution source is deterministic. The only dependency is the timely publication of the final figure by Wunderground, expected within hours.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.