Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's weather on 11 August 2026 will be determined by the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or expect conditions substantially cooler than the lowest available range. Over the past 48 hours, no significant meteorological shifts have altered the baseline August climate pattern for Bavaria, though European weather models continue updating forecasts as the settlement date approaches.

Historical August temperatures at Munich Airport typically peak between 24–28°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C or above during heat waves. The last decade shows roughly one in three Augusts producing a day exceeding 28°C at the station, making mid-to-high range outcomes statistically plausible rather than exceptional. The 0% implied probability appears disconnected from this climatological baseline, suggesting either thin liquidity or a specific expectation about range thresholds in the market's construction.

Traders should monitor European medium-range forecasts from the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) and ECMWF model updates, which typically stabilise meaningful detail 10–14 days before the settlement date. Any significant Atlantic weather pattern shift—such as a northerly flow or blocking high-pressure system—would materially alter the outcome. The resolution methodology's reliance on Weather Underground's specific station data and Daily Observations table rather than summary highs creates a technical dependency worth confirming before settlement approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.