Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Mexico City's peak temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official station for settlement. The current 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will contain the day's high, rather than confidence that any particular range is impossible. May typically marks the transition into Mexico City's warm season ahead of the June monsoon onset, with historical highs in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius.

Comparable May 25th observations from recent years show considerable variability. In 2023, the day peaked at 24.4°C; in 2022, it reached 25.6°C. The five-year average for late May at this station hovers around 25–26°C, though individual days regularly deviate by 2–3 degrees depending on cloud cover and wind patterns. Traders should note that Mexico City's elevation (2,250 metres) moderates absolute temperatures compared to lower-altitude Mexican cities, and the airport station's microclimate can differ from central districts.

The critical dependency is atmospheric pressure systems tracking across central Mexico in the weeks preceding 25 May. High-altitude ridging typically drives warmer conditions, whilst tropical moisture intrusions can suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover. Current seasonal forecasts from Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) will be the primary real-time indicator; traders should monitor their May outlooks as the settlement date approaches. No scheduled weather events or anomalies are presently flagged for that specific date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.