Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Heavy rain has already been reported in Manila this morning, and that is the key change in the last 24–48 hours: the city is starting the day under the southwest monsoon with showers, overcast skies and a broad forecast range capped in the mid-80s °F, which is broadly consistent with a low-30s °C ceiling. PAGASA’s selected-cities outlook puts Metro Manila at 26°C to 32°C with a 30% rain chance, while Weather Underground’s Manila page is updating on the ground from Ninoy Aquino International Airport, where the market will resolve from the Daily Observations table rather than the summary box.[11][9][12]

The zero per cent crowd price is best read against Manila’s usual August climatology: average highs are around 31°C to 32°C, but the month is also one of the wetter periods of the year, so cloud cover and rain often compress intraday extremes. Recent weather references and forecast sets are clustered around 28°C to 32°C for today, which makes outcomes materially above 32°C look unlikely unless showers clear early and sunshine dominates the middle of the day.[1][4][8]

For traders, the main catalysts are the timing of rain bands, any PAGASA advisories on southwest monsoon intensity, and whether the airport station logs a brief midday spike before the next observation cycle resets the day’s high. The market’s settlement rule also matters: the final number is the highest Celsius value in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for 10 August, so any late-morning or afternoon update there is more relevant than the headline high-and-low summary.[9][12][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.