Highest temperature in Madrid on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's weather on 25 July 2026 will be measured against historical summer extremes for the city. The 3% probability assigned to this market reflects scepticism about an exceptionally high reading on that specific date. Madrid's all-time record high stands at 40.5°C, set in August 1990, though July temperatures regularly exceed 38°C during heat waves. The settlement will depend on readings from Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, which typically records slightly cooler maxima than central Madrid due to its location and elevation.

July heat in Madrid follows predictable patterns shaped by Iberian high-pressure systems, but individual daily peaks vary considerably. Historical data shows that whilst sustained heat waves are common, isolated days reaching extreme thresholds remain uncommon. The specific date falls mid-summer, when Mediterranean anticyclones dominate, yet this alone does not guarantee record-breaking temperatures. Traders should monitor European weather models from mid-July onwards, particularly ECMWF and GFS forecasts issued 10–14 days prior to the settlement date, which will clarify whether an unusually intense heat dome is developing over the Iberian Peninsula.

The resolution mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical records for the airport station. Any discrepancies between sources or sensor malfunctions could affect settlement, though such occurrences are rare. The market closes at midday UTC on 25 July, capturing the full diurnal cycle up to that point. Traders should verify the specific temperature range boundaries against which the highest recorded temperature will be matched.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.