Highest temperature in Madrid on August 7?

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Market context

Madrid is still under a sharp heat set-up after yesterday’s readings, when the airport station reached 38.4°C and nearby Madrid stations also pushed into the high 30s. For today, AEMET’s latest local forecast keeps the capital in a hot spell, with a yellow warning for maximum temperatures of 37°C and widespread afternoon values above 36°C across the region.[1][3]

That matters because this market settles on the *highest* reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, not the simpler day-high summary. The historical framing is straightforward: in Madrid, days forecast around 37°C can still print a little above that at the airport when the afternoon peak arrives, but the event window ends at 12:00 UTC, so the key question is whether the top reading is logged before midday or after it.[1][3][4]

Traders should watch the timing of the warming curve, not just the headline maximum. The main catalyst is whether the airport station gets its warmest observation early enough to clear the settlement window, because the market source is the timestamped Daily Observations table on Weather Underground.[4] If the hottest part of the day lands later, the market can still resolve lower even with a severe daytime forecast, and current third-party forecasts remain clustered around the mid-to-high 30s rather than well above 40°C.[1][3][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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