Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Lucknow’s official maximum temperature on 7 July 2026 is currently priced at 0% chance of hitting 33°C, a sharp reversal from yesterday’s 28% implied probability for that outcome. This drop follows the Indian Meteorological Department’s 6 July forecast warning of thundershowers and gusty winds up to 60 km/h, which typically suppress peak daytime highs. Historical July data shows Lucknow’s daily highs rarely fall below 85°F (30°C), with averages near 91°F (33°C), making a sub-33°C reading plausible only under active rain or cloud cover [1][3].

The market’s 0% stance aligns with recent Polymarket activity where 32°C now leads at 33%, while 38°C remains the frontrunner for 5 July at 100% [2][7]. Traders should monitor tomorrow’s 8 July forecast from The Times of India, which predicts patchy rain and a 66% rain probability, potentially capping the maximum at 38°C [4]. The IMD’s 6 July note also flags isolated thunderstorms with lightning, a key dependency that could push temperatures below 33°C if sustained through midday [6]. With settlement ending 12:00 UTC on 7 July, real-time Wunderground updates will be the definitive resolution source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.