Highest temperature in London on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

London is starting the day with a **clear 27°C consensus** in the market, after the first overnight pricing settled around that level and the live forecast from the market page pointed to a daytime maximum of 27°C under high pressure, light winds and southerly flow.[1] The crowd is still assigning some weight to 26°C and 28°C, which is consistent with a summer setup where small changes in cloud cover or the timing of sunshine can shift the station maximum by a degree either side of the centre of the distribution.[1]

That pricing sits in the middle of London’s recent summer pattern rather than at an extreme. The Met Office said UK daily maximum temperatures were running about 2.1°C above average at the halfway point of summer 2026, but not at record-setting levels, while recent London readings have already shown how quickly the capital can flip between the mid-20s and low-30s during warm spells.[14][13] For this market, the relevant historical read-through is not the annual temperature record but how often London City Airport lands on a single-degree peak when the broader synoptic pattern is warm but not fully locked-in.[1][14]

The main catalysts to watch are the short-range forecast updates, any change in cloud, and the timing of the daily maximum at London City Airport relative to Heathrow and inner-city sites, because local variation can decide whether the final print settles at 26°C, 27°C or 28°C.[1] The market will use the highest temperature recorded on Wunderground for that station, with revisions counted only until the next day’s first datapoint is published, so late adjustments to the observational record can still matter after the afternoon peak.[1] Weather services were already pointing to 27°C today, making the next question whether the warmth is clean enough and long enough to push the station above that level before the cooling starts.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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