Highest temperature in London on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

London's weather on 12 August 2026 will be determined by atmospheric conditions roughly two years hence, making current probability assessments largely speculative. The 0% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty in forecasting specific temperature ranges at such extended horizons rather than any certainty about August conditions. London City Airport, the designated measurement station, typically records August highs between 20–24°C, though extremes have reached 27°C during heatwaves. The market's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a technical specification that traders should verify against historical station reporting practices to understand potential resolution edge cases.

August temperatures in London show considerable year-to-year variation driven by Atlantic weather patterns and jet stream positioning. The past decade has seen several August days exceed 25°C, with 2022 recording notable heat, whilst cooler Augusts have remained in the low-20s range. Traders assessing probability distributions should reference the UK Met Office's long-range seasonal outlooks, typically issued in July 2026, which will provide the most concrete guidance available closer to the settlement date. The specific temperature range brackets offered in this market will determine whether traders view the implied probabilities as mispriced; wider ranges containing 22–24°C would capture the modal outcome, whilst narrower bands at either extreme would carry substantially different risk profiles.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.