Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Market context

Istanbul's weather on 25 May 2026 will be measured against NOAA's station at Atatürk Airport, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature reading across all hours that day. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current inability to resolve—the settlement window closes at noon UTC on the specified date, meaning only temperatures recorded before that cutoff will count towards resolution. This timing constraint significantly narrows the observable window compared to a full calendar day.

May in Istanbul typically sees highs between 24–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that temperatures exceeding 32°C on 25 May are rare but not unprecedented; the city experienced a 34°C reading on that date in 2018. The probability distribution will depend on seasonal forecasts issued in late April and early May 2026, which currently remain unavailable. Traders should note that late May often marks the transition into Istanbul's warmer season, though spring variability remains substantial.

The key catalyst will be medium-range weather forecasting models released 10–14 days before the settlement date, which typically provide reliable temperature guidance for European locations. Any significant heat dome or high-pressure system developing over the eastern Mediterranean in mid-May would shift expectations upward. Traders should monitor European weather services and NOAA's own extended forecasts once they become available in May 2026, as these will determine whether conditions favour temperatures in the 24–26°C range or push toward the 28–32°C bands.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.