Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s heat outcome for 3 August looks to have been set by a classic summer pattern rather than any late surprise, with the latest Houston forecast still showing a hot, sunny day and peak temperatures around the upper 80s Fahrenheit. Forecast services for early August place Houston’s typical highs near the mid-to-upper 80s, which means the market’s 0% YES implication is broadly consistent with the climatology, but only if the day’s realised high at Hobby Airport stays below the relevant band cutoff. [2][5][15]

Comparable August readings in Houston usually cluster in that same range, and official climate material for the city’s airports shows August is one of the hottest months of the year, with daily highs often in the 80s and occasional spikes into the 90s. That framing matters because the contract resolves off William P. Hobby Airport, not a citywide average, so a brief inland breeze, cloud cover, or a storm outflow can shift the recorded airport high enough to matter even when the broader metro feels similar heat. [9][11][13][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s convective setup and any late-afternoon thunderstorm development, since Houston summer highs are often capped by cloud build, rain-cooled outflow, or an earlier peak before the deepest heat arrives. The resolution source is Weather Underground’s daily history for KHOU, so the key watchpoint is the final published daily maximum once the next day’s first observation is posted; until then, late data can still move the contract if the airport’s peak temperature changes. [10][13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Houston on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.