Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27?

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Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 27 May 2026 will be measured against the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily maximum temperature record. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though the Observatory typically finalises its daily extract data within hours of the observation period ending. Current market pricing reflects substantial uncertainty about which temperature band will contain the day's high.

May sits within Hong Kong's pre-monsoon transition period, when daily maxima typically range between 28°C and 32°C depending on cloud cover and wind patterns. Historical data from the Observatory shows that late May temperatures rarely exceed 33°C, though heat waves pushing above 34°C occur roughly once every five to ten years during this month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are awaiting clearer atmospheric signals before committing capital to specific temperature bands.

The key dependency is the progression of the subtropical ridge and any early-season tropical systems that might influence cloud cover and convection on the day itself. Seasonal forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological services will become more precise in early May, typically two to three weeks before the settlement date. Any significant tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late April or early May could materially shift expectations for late-May conditions, as would anomalous warming patterns tracked by regional weather bureaus in the preceding fortnight.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.