Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 25 May 2026 will be measured against historical May temperatures, with the Hong Kong Observatory recording the daily maximum in Celsius as the settlement source. May typically marks the transition into Hong Kong's pre-monsoon season, when afternoon highs regularly exceed 30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending typical May conditions.

Historical May data from the Observatory shows Hong Kong's daily maxima cluster between 28–33°C, with occasional peaks above 34°C during heat waves. The absolute May record of 36.1°C (set in 2003) remains an outlier; most years see highest daily temperatures in the 31–32°C range. Current crowd positioning at 0% indicates either extreme scepticism about unusually high temperatures or insufficient trader participation in this specific date-range market.

The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 25 May 2026, requiring the Observatory's finalised daily extract data before resolution. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological outlooks as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of early-season heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries with finalised data typically within days of month-end, though this market cannot resolve until official records are confirmed.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.