Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 22?

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Market context

Hong Kong’s heat has eased back from the stronger late-May readings that pushed nearby temperature markets higher earlier in the week, with the latest setup still pointing to a fairly warm but not extreme afternoon by local standards. For this market, the key question is whether the Hong Kong Observatory’s recorded daily maximum ends up in the upper end of the seasonal May range, or whether cloud, showers or a sea breeze keep the reading down in the mid-20s.

Climatology suggests late May in Hong Kong often sits around the high-20s Celsius, but the upper-20s is not unusual and 30°C-plus readings do occur in warm spells. The Observatory’s own May records show the month can produce much hotter conditions in exceptional years, including monthly mean maximums above 31°C, so a zero-per-cent crowd price implies traders are currently treating a very hot outcome as materially less likely than normal seasonal patterns would suggest.

What matters now is the final Hong Kong Observatory daily extract for 22 May, which is the settlement source and will decide the range once finalised. Short-term changes in cloud cover, rainfall and timing of afternoon heating are the main variables, and Hong Kong’s late-spring weather can shift quickly under southerly flow or passing showers. The observable catalyst is the official daily maximum from the Observatory’s climatology tables, not airport or private forecast data, so any late revisions to the published extract are the only source that can change the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.