Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 9 June 2026 will be assessed against historical June temperature patterns, with the market currently pricing a 3% probability for the highest daily maximum to fall within the specified range. Early June typically marks the transition into Hong Kong's pre-monsoon period, when afternoon highs average around 31–32°C, though extremes remain possible given the territory's subtropical climate and urban heat effects.

The Hong Kong Observatory's historical records show that daily maxima in early June rarely exceed 35°C, with such occurrences concentrated in years following particularly warm springs or during anomalous atmospheric patterns. The 3% implied probability reflects baseline expectations aligned with typical seasonal norms rather than exceptional heat events. Comparable dates from recent years—such as 9 June 2023, which recorded 31.8°C—provide reference points for what constitutes ordinary versus elevated temperatures during this period.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal forecasts issued by the Observatory in the weeks preceding the date, particularly any advisories regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. The El Niño/La Niña status and broader Pacific atmospheric patterns through May 2026 will influence June conditions. Settlement depends on the Observatory's publication of finalised daily data in their Climate Information Services portal, typically released within days of the observation date. Any tropical cyclone activity or significant upper-atmosphere disturbances in late May could materially shift expectations closer to the resolution window.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.