Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's temperature on 6 June 2026 will be determined by the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily maximum reading, which typically peaks in the early afternoon hours. June sits firmly within the city's pre-monsoon warm season, when afternoon highs routinely exceed 30°C. The settlement window closes at midday on the date itself, meaning traders are betting on conditions that will unfold within hours of market closure.

Historical June data from the Observatory shows Hong Kong's daily maxima cluster between 29–33°C during the first week of the month, with occasional readings reaching 34–35°C during heat spikes. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across all ranges. Comparable early-June days from recent years provide the most reliable baseline: 2023 saw 32.1°C on 6 June, whilst 2022 recorded 31.5°C. Humidity and cloud cover during the pre-monsoon period introduce variability, but sustained temperatures below 28°C or above 36°C remain statistical outliers for this date.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's five-day forecast updates, which typically stabilise 48–72 hours before the settlement date. Any tropical system approaching the region or unusual atmospheric patterns could shift expectations materially. The Observatory publishes its daily extract data within 24 hours of the calendar day's close, meaning final resolution depends on official publication rather than real-time observation.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.