Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

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Market context

Hong Kong's temperature on 4 June 2026 will be determined by the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily maximum reading, measured to one decimal place. Early June typically falls within Hong Kong's pre-monsoon transition period, when southwesterly winds begin intensifying ahead of the summer monsoon onset. The crowd's 0% probability on any specific temperature range suggests uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the day's peak, rather than confidence that no temperature will be recorded.

Historical June data from the Observatory shows daily maxima in early June typically range between 28°C and 33°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 35°C during particularly hot years. The 1998 heat wave and 2015 warm spell both produced elevated early-June temperatures, providing reference points for understanding tail-risk scenarios. Current atmospheric patterns and seasonal timing will be the primary drivers; there is no technical dependency preventing resolution once the Observatory publishes its daily extract for that date.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts released in May 2026, which typically provide guidance on expected temperature ranges for the following month. Any significant weather systems—tropical cyclones, cold fronts, or high-pressure ridges—could materially shift the distribution of possible outcomes. The Observatory publishes its daily climate data within days of observation, so resolution should occur shortly after 4 June 2026 concludes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.