Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong is heading into a **very hot** Sunday, and the latest Observatory forecast points to a daytime range of **29–33°C** with sunny periods and isolated morning showers. That leaves the market’s 0% YES pricing well below the official forecast band, especially with the Hong Kong Observatory describing the broader pattern as fine and very hot across southern China.[5][9]

Historically, June in Hong Kong sits squarely in the hot season, with typical highs around **28–32°C** and the Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June to August 2026 calling temperatures **above-normal**.[1][7] That context matters because this market settles on the **highest recorded temperature at the Observatory station**, not a citywide average, so the outcome usually hinges on whether the day reaches the low-30s rather than on overnight humidity or showers.[9] The current crowd view also fits the live market split, where **32°C** is the frontrunner and **33°C** is the main alternative.[1]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s intraday forecast updates, any change in cloud cover or showers, and whether the afternoon heating is capped by sea breeze or early convection.[5][9] The settlement source is the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **Daily Extract**, and the market cannot resolve until that publication appears, so the decisive input is the recorded **Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)** for 21 June rather than the forecast alone.[9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.