Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

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Market context

Hong Kong's June weather patterns are entering the early monsoon transition period, with the Southwest Monsoon beginning to establish itself across the region. The 14th falls within the typical onset window for the summer season, when daily maximum temperatures in Hong Kong ordinarily range between 28–32°C, though extremes above 33°C are not uncommon during early June heat spells. Current atmospheric conditions and seasonal timing will determine whether the day tracks toward the warmer end of this distribution.

Historical records from the Hong Kong Observatory show that June temperatures have occasionally spiked significantly above seasonal norms. The highest June temperature on record stands at 36.1°C, recorded in 1967, though more recent decades have seen several days exceeding 34°C during early June. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where the day remains within cooler-to-moderate ranges, though this reflects positioning rather than meteorological certainty.

The resolution depends entirely on the Hong Kong Observatory's published daily maximum temperature for 14 June 2026, available through their Daily Extract climate data portal. Traders should monitor the Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any significant weather systems developing in the week preceding the date, particularly the strength and timing of the Southwest Monsoon onset and any tropical systems affecting the region. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the specified date, with final resolution contingent on official data publication.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.