Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is facing a day of medium-high significant rain probability on 6 July, with forecast highs of 27–31°C, which has driven the crowd-implied probability for a 31°C peak to zero in the last 24 hours. Recent tropical weather updates from the Observatory on 5 July indicate a shift toward cooler outcomes, pushing the daily maximum down to 29°C or 30°C while cooler buckets gain probability at the expense of the 31°C range[3][5].

Historical July data frames this zero probability as consistent with typical variability, where the average high sits at 88°F (31.1°C) but daily peaks frequently dip to 29.6°C or 29.7°C by mid-month[1][9]. The seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 predicts normal to above-normal temperatures under an emerging strong El Niño, yet the immediate rain probability and recent cooling trend suggest the 31°C threshold is unlikely to be breached today[2].

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalised "Daily Extract" for the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)", which will only be published once data is finalized after the settlement window[2]. The primary catalyst is the evolving rain probability, currently rated medium-high, which acts as a direct suppressor for peak temperatures; any sudden shift in this forecast or the release of the final daily extract will determine the market resolution[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.