Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

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Market context

Hong Kong is already starting the day hot, with the Observatory reporting 29°C at 3 a.m., which leaves scope for a solid daytime climb if sunshine persists. AccuWeather’s forecast for the city points to a high around 97°F, or roughly 36.1°C, with similarly hot readings into the following day, so the market’s 0% yes price is sitting against a genuinely warm setup rather than a cool one.[7][1]

For context, the Hong Kong Observatory’s August normals put the mean maximum temperature on 8 August at 31.7°C, but the date has also produced much stronger extremes. The Observatory recorded 34.4°C on 8 August 2020 as the month’s highest reading, while 8 August 2015 produced a record 36.3°C at the Observatory, showing that this date can occasionally move well beyond seasonal averages.[6][11][2]

The main catalyst today is the Observatory’s hourly readings through the afternoon, then the final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” once the Daily Extract is published on the climatology page; the market cannot settle until that file appears.[3] Traders should watch whether the city keeps cloud cover and sea-breeze influence low enough to challenge the low-to-mid 30s, as early-morning temperatures alone do not determine the final outcome.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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