Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong has started the day warm and humid, with the Observatory reporting 28°C at 4 a.m., which leaves room for the city to add several degrees before the afternoon peak. That early reading matters because this market settles on the **highest** temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on the day, so traders are really pricing the daytime ceiling rather than the morning baseline.[2]

The current 0% yes price looks hard to square with August comparables. The market’s own book is already clustering around the low-30s, with 33°C the leading outcome at 33% and 34°C next at 23%.[1] Hong Kong’s August climate normally supports that sort of range, and the Observatory’s August 2024 and 2025 monthly summaries both show mean daily maximum temperatures above 31°C, with some days pushing into the mid-30s.[4][6] In stronger heat episodes, the city can go well beyond that: the Weather-related press reports have documented Observatory highs of 35.4°C and even 36.3°C in past summer heat events.[3][15]

The main catalysts are straightforward: incoming HKO hourly updates, any shift in cloud, rain or onshore flow through the morning, and whether the official daily extract later records a one-tenth degree value in the 33–35°C zone or something hotter. The Observatory’s public weather pages and hourly readings are the relevant near-term check points, while the final resolution depends on the published “Daily Extract” for 7 August once it is finalised.[2][11] In practice, if the city stays mostly sunny after a warm dawn, the odds of a low-30s settlement remain much weaker than the current 0% yes line suggests.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

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