Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s heat pattern has shifted little over the last 24–48 hours, with forecast ranges still clustering around the low 30s Celsius and the market sitting at a **0%** crowd-implied chance of the top bucket. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows highs of about 88°F to 92°F, which is roughly 31°C to 33°C, while the Hong Kong Observatory’s own August normals put 6 August’s mean maximum at **31.6°C** and mean temperature at **28.9°C**.[1][3]

That backdrop matters because Hong Kong’s late-summer extremes can still run well above the daily mean when strong heating combines with light wind and humid air. Recent local reporting has shown the city reaching the **mid-30s°C** on very hot days, including 35.4°C and even 38.9°C in outlying areas during a recent heat episode, but those were clear outliers rather than the everyday August baseline.[2][5] For this market, readings in the low 30s would leave the highest-temperature outcome concentrated in the middle brackets, not the top end.[3][9]

The main catalysts to watch are the Hong Kong Observatory’s day-of forecasts, any heat warnings or thunderstorm signals, and whether afternoon convection develops enough cloud or rain to cap the maximum before the official daily extract is finalised. The settlement source is the Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” in the relevant Daily Extract, and the market cannot resolve until that data is published.[4] For traders, the practical dependency is the weather sequence during the daytime heating window rather than any single headline forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.