Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong has just come off a severe heat spike: the Observatory said the city recorded 36.9C on Sunday, the highest temperature at the station since records began in 1884, with some inland automatic stations reaching 39.8C. That reset the baseline for this market, because a new daily high on 14 August now needs to clear a very elevated recent reference point rather than an ordinary August level.[12][11]

The comparison set still argues for caution on the very top bands, even in an established hot season. The Observatory’s August climatology shows that the highest official readings can run well above 34C in extreme periods, with 2024 described as exceptionally hot and a daily maximum of 34.6C at the Observatory on 1 August 2024; by contrast, last year’s 14 August extract showed a maximum of 30.7C, illustrating how sharply outcomes can swing with cloud, showers and storms.[8][13] That history is why the market’s current 0% crowd-implied yes price is only meaningful if traders believe today will stay well below the recent record-setting regime.

For the next 24 hours, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s updated forecasts, the timing of afternoon convection, and whether rain bands or thunderstorms suppress the daytime peak before the daily maximum is fixed in the post-event extract. Public forecast pages from BBC Weather, Time and Date, AccuWeather and Weather Underground all show warm, humid conditions with showers or thunderstorms in Hong Kong today, which would usually cap the maximum compared with the weekend’s record heat, but the settlement source remains the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max” in its daily extract, not a private forecast.[6][9][14][10][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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