Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's peak temperature on 13 August 2026 will be determined by the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily maximum reading, with settlement contingent on publication of that data in the Observatory's Daily Extract records. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any outcome, reflecting the distant settlement date and lack of near-term catalysts.

August represents the height of Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when daily maxima typically range between 31–34°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme heat days exceeding 35°C occur occasionally during this period, though they remain relatively uncommon. The 13th of August has seen temperatures as high as 34.8°C in recent decades, with most years clustering in the 32–34°C band. This historical distribution provides the baseline against which traders should calibrate their expectations for the specific outcome ranges offered.

The primary dependency for this market is the eventual publication of verified temperature data by the Hong Kong Observatory, which typically releases daily climate records within days of observation. Traders should monitor the Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any anomalous weather patterns in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026, though such long-range predictions carry substantial uncertainty. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 August, meaning resolution cannot occur until official Observatory data becomes available post-observation.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.