Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s early-August heat profile has not shifted much in the last 24–48 hours: the climatological baseline still points to a very warm day, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s August 1 normal mean maximum at 31.6°C and average conditions commonly described as hot, humid and showery.[3][4] On that sort of setup, the market’s 0% yes probability is broadly consistent with the fact that this contract resolves only if the Observatory’s **highest** temperature on the day lands in the specified Celsius range, not merely if it feels hot by local standards.[3][5]

Comparable August cases show how quickly the upper tail can move when Hong Kong is under persistent high pressure. The Observatory recorded a maximum of 35.4°C on 5 August 2024, and 34.4°C on 10 August 2025, both well above the long-run August norm.[12][15] At the same time, August can also settle close to the low 30s when cloud and rain are more influential, so the most relevant read-through is whether today develops the sort of clear, suppressed-wind conditions that allow temperatures to spike above the seasonal average.[3][12][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s intraday updates, the local forecast discussion, and any change in cloud, rain or tropical-feel influences that could cap the afternoon high before the daily extract is finalised.[5][12][15] The contract does not resolve until the Hong Kong Observatory publishes the finalized “Daily Extract” for 1 August 2026, so the practical driver is the reported **Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)** rather than the live midday reading.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.