Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou is entering its peak summer heat phase, with July 9, 2026, expected to deliver temperatures near the month’s upper limit. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” range (likely meaning a temperature below a specific threshold) appears inconsistent with historical patterns, as daily highs in early July routinely reach 36°C, and the average high for July sits at 33°C (91°F)[1][3]. Even the most conservative forecasts place the day’s maximum between 28°C and 34°C, with 98°F (36.7°C) recorded as a likely maximum under hazy sunshine conditions[2][4][5].

Historical data from July 4, 2026, shows a similar heat profile, with the highest temperature at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport reaching 36°C, reinforcing that early July is among the year’s hottest periods[1]. The warmest day of July typically occurs around 30 July, averaging 32.2°C, but daily highs in the first week are already well above 30°C, making a low-temperature outcome highly improbable[3][7]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official 24-hour maximum, as well as any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall, which could temporarily suppress temperatures[4]. Recent reports note Guangzhou has experienced its longest summer since 1961, suggesting sustained high temperatures are likely to persist through mid-July[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.