Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou is starting the session on a hot, humid and only partly settled footing, with the latest short-range forecasts still pointing to afternoon highs around 37°C and only a modest rain risk rather than a washout. That matters because the market settles on the *single highest* temperature logged at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, so an early-morning 0% crowd view is really a statement that the day has not yet produced any evidence of an exceptional spike beyond the usual July heat band.[2][5]

July in Guangzhou is normally a strong-heat, high-moisture month rather than a cold-variable one: daily highs are typically around 34–35°C, with some forecasts and climatology showing 37°C or higher on the hottest days, while rainfall remains frequent but often comes as brief showers rather than all-day rain.[1][6][9][10][12] That historical range makes low-30s outcomes very plausible, but it also shows why a move into the upper 30s is not unusual enough to rule out, especially on a day with sunshine between showers.[2][11]

For traders, the main catalysts are the hourly temperature path at Baiyun Airport, the timing of any convective rain or thunderstorm development, and whether cloud cover arrives early enough to cap the daytime maximum before mid-afternoon. Regional forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory still show heavy rain or thunderstorms across much of Guangdong, including Guangzhou, which can trim highs if showers hit during the warmest part of the day; by contrast, any delay in rainfall leaves the door open for the airport station to print at the top end of the forecast range.[7][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.