Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou is entering its peak summer heatwave, with July 10 expected to be clear and scorching, pushing temperatures toward 35°C. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific high-temperature range appears misplaced, as historical data confirms July is the city’s hottest month, with extremes regularly exceeding 38°C. Over the last 24 hours, the shift from thunder showers to clear skies has removed the cooling effect of rain, setting the stage for a significant temperature spike that traders may be underestimating.

Historical patterns frame this probability as an outlier. In typical July conditions, daily highs cluster around 33°C to 37°C, rarely dipping below 35°C during clear spells. The average high for July is 33°C, but extremes have reached 39°C in recent years. Given that July and August are the hottest months, with humidity often exceeding 80%, the likelihood of a record-breaking high is substantial. The 0% probability suggests the market is ignoring the consistent trend of torrid weather that lasts until late August.

Traders should monitor the arrival of any typhoon systems, which could disrupt the heatwave and bring cooling rain. The National Meteorological Centre of China has issued forecasts indicating stable high-pressure conditions until mid-July, reinforcing the heat trend. Additionally, watch for updates on the Baiyun International Airport Station’s real-time data, as Wunderground will resolve the market based on this source. Any sudden shift in wind patterns or cloud cover could alter the outcome, but the current trajectory points to sustained high temperatures.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.