Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou has started the day in its familiar August pattern: hot, humid and unsettled, with official and forecast sources pointing to a daytime high around 31–33°C and showers or thunderstorms rather than a clean, dry heat. The Hong Kong Government’s city forecast for Guangzhou issued yesterday put the maximum at 31°C with rain, while current station observations at Baiyun Airport are already around 30°C with high humidity, so the day has room to climb but not a large cushion above the low 30s.[8][6]

That makes the market’s 0% crowd-implied probability of a threshold-clearance outcome understandable if the relevant range is set well above the low 30s. Guangzhou’s August climatology is consistently hot rather than extreme: average highs are typically about 33°C, with many guides describing August as the city’s second-hottest month and a period of frequent rain, which tends to cap rather than amplify midday spikes.[1][14][18] In practical terms, a reading that lands in the forecast band looks more likely than an outlier heatburst, especially if cloud and rain persist into the afternoon.[2][16]

Traders should watch the Baiyun Airport station feed on Wunderground through the early afternoon UTC equivalent, because the settlement source is the day’s recorded maximum there, not a citywide average.[1] The key catalysts are whether showers break up before peak heating, whether sunshine is strong enough to push the airport above the 31–33°C forecast range, and whether any later convective burst suppresses the daily high before it is set. With this setup, the most important update is not a headline event but the live temperature trace against the forecast ceiling.[8][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.