Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou is already running hot and humid this morning, with forecasters pointing to a high around **36–37°C** and little or no rain to blunt the daytime peak. The current crowd price of 0% for a “YES” outcome sits against a market setup that still leaves room for a late-morning or early-afternoon spike, because the settlement looks at the **highest observed temperature** in the Weather Underground daily observations, not a headline day-high estimate.[1][4][5][8][10]

That matters because Guangzhou’s August climate is typically dominated by oppressive heat, high humidity and frequent showers, but the upper end of daily maxima still often reaches the mid-30s Celsius. Comparable forecasts for today from several services cluster between **33°C and 37°C**, which places the likely outcome in the hotter resolution bands rather than the cooler ones, even if cloud cover or a brief shower trims the official daily maximum.[3][6][14][18][19]

For traders, the main catalysts are the evolution of the hourly temperature trace through the late morning and early afternoon, plus whether any convective rain or increased cloud cover develops before the daily peak is logged at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport. The settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**, so any temperature rise after that point will not matter, and the key reference remains the observation table on Weather Underground rather than the summary display.[4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

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UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.