Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou is in its sticky, thunderstorm-prone peak-summer pattern, and that keeps the day’s maximum temperature heavily dependent on how much sun breaks through before afternoon convection builds. Recent August climate norms put the city’s average high around 33°C, with typical daytime highs near 32–33°C and very warm nights, so a sub-30°C reading would be materially cooler than normal rather than a base case.[1][4][18]

The current 0% YES price is easy to read against the historical distribution: Guangzhou regularly reaches the low- to mid-30s in August, and some recent historical tables show days above 35°C even in the first week of the month.[5][20] Longer-run climate summaries also show that the month’s warmest days can approach 37–39°C, so the market is effectively betting against an ordinary hot-season outcome at the airport station, where the official maximum can still be capped by cloud cover or rainfall.[20][18]

For traders, the key watchpoints are the same-day forecast revisions, the timing of thunderstorms, and whether the airport station ends up under early sunshine or earlier cloud/rain shielding; those factors matter more than the monthly average. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook currently points to daily highs mostly between 89°F and 93°F, which translates to roughly 32–34°C and sits well above a 0% implied chance for a winning band below that level.[8] The Wunderground history page for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is the settlement source, so intraday updates there, especially any late-afternoon peak before the daily cutoff, are what ultimately determine the result.[market description]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.